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Archer crosses floor

Liberal member for Bass Bridget Archer speaks to Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg after crossing the floor during a division on allowing debate on an integrity commission in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, November 25, 2021.  (AAP Image/Lukas Coch) NO ARCHIVING

AAP image/Lukas Coch - treasurer Josh Frydenberg consoles an emotional Bridget Archer in the wake of Thursday's vote

A Tasmanian political analyst believes the Coalition would lose the marginal seat of Bass in next year's election, if it punishes MP Bridget Archer for crossing the floor on Thursday. 

Ms Archer sided against her Morrison Government colleagues in backing debate on a federal integrity commission.

"I take this decision very seriously...and it's a difficult decision to make," she told the House of Representatives. 

"This is one of the most important things that we come to this place to do...we need a robust Federal Integrity Commission, that people should have trust and confidence in us, in the people they elect." 

The vote ultimately failed without an absolute majority.

Pollster Kevin Bonham has told WIN he doesn't expect any reprisals against Ms Archer.

"They would be foolish to challenge her preselection over the matter because if you ended up in a situation where she got deselected and ran as an independent, the Liberals would lose the seat," he said. 

"There is the history of Bass throwing out its sitting member at almost every election for the last few decades, and that might be playing into a feeling that if you're going to get re-elected here you have to do something different."