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Tassie in Senate lucky dip

election

In-depth analysis by the Australia Institute indicates Tasmania could play a key part in determining the make up of the Senate.

There's been a significant spike in One Nation polling with the minor party likely to be involved in a four-way tussle for the state's last two Senate seats.

The Coalition, Greens, Jacqui Lambie are also thought to be contenders.

A separate Yougov poll on election eve has Labor's lead on the Coalition narrowing to 51 to 49 after preferences.

“The last two Senate spots in Tasmania will be key in deciding the final make up and dynamic of the Senate. Both of these seats are likely to be decided on preferences in a closely run race. Of Jacqui Lambie, the Greens, Liberals and One Nation, none are assured one of the two final spots,” said Leanne Minshull, Director of the Australia Institute Tasmania.

“Senate polling is notoriously difficult and the only certainty is that nothing is certain for the last two Senate spots in Tasmania."